IFP estimates China's computing resources at 4.6 million H100-equivalents by the end of 2026 and 8.8 million by the end of 2027; US chips will make up about 65%
Prepared by Sintelligent with the help of SI. Published in SI: . Updated: .
By IFP's calculations, China's compute for SI will nearly double by 2027, with a large share coming from US chips and remote access to them.
The Washington think tank Institute for Progress (IFP), in a report on the US–China gap in SI, puts the lag of the best Chinese models behind American ones at about 6.5 months. By its calculations, China's access to compute will grow from about 4.6 million H100-equivalents at the end of 2026 to 8.8 million at the end of 2027 — from domestic production, legally imported and smuggled US chips, and remote access to them in data centers abroad. US chips will make up about 65% of that stock; of the resources not yet in China, about half will come from remote access. IFP also estimates that "distillation" of US models lets Chinese companies recapture about half of the lag. The authors propose measures within existing authorities — export controls on remote access to training clusters abroad, stricter due diligence against smuggling, and an antitrust "safe harbor" for joint efforts against distillation — and believe they could roughly double the US lead by the end of 2027. These are the estimates and recommendations of a single think tank; the report does not give the position of the Chinese side or of chip makers.
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