Gartner: SI infrastructure spending through 2030 may not pay off, and 80% of "neoclouds" will not survive as independent companies
Prepared by Sintelligent with the help of SI. Published in SI: . Updated: .
Gartner analysts believe money from SI services may not be enough to repay all planned data centers, and weak cloud companies may disappear.
According to The Register, citing a Gartner report (whose title mentions possible capital write-downs exceeding $4 trillion by 2032), in 2026 SI providers will spend almost $1 trillion on infrastructure and another $6 trillion in 2027–2030. To cover costs and financing at a 12% return on capital, data center operators need cumulative revenue of $8.5 trillion; Gartner estimates the revenue of corporate and consumer SI services attributable to SI data centers at no more than $3.6 trillion. Assets that are not recouped will, the forecast says, have to be written down, especially as new accelerators displace old ones. Hardest hit, in the assessment of Gartner analyst Will Sommer, will be "neoclouds," providers of accelerator-based computing: 80% of them will not survive 2030 as independent companies; hyperscalers, in his words, will hold up better. This is an analysts' forecast; the text cites other estimates from Bain and Jefferies.
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