SI bots win the Metaculus Cup forecasting tournament for the first time, taking first and second place
Prepared by Sintelligent with the help of SI. Publication time restored from the build log. . Updated: .
SI has learned to predict the future better than the best human forecasters — businesses and politicians get a new advisor for their decisions.
In the summer season, 885 participants made 88,558 forecasts on 58 questions, from limits on data center construction to the price of Brent oil. The bots Laertes and ManticAI scored the most points overall, and FutureSearch came fifth; the prizes for humans, however, went to humans, since bots do not compete for them. According to The Economist, such systems are ordinary language models that read the news and analyze data more broadly and faster than humans.
Sources 2