Anthropic calculates how SI could change the US economy by 2030: from +1.6% GDP to +32% with a falling wage share
Prepared by Sintelligent with the help of SI. Publication time restored from the build log. . Updated: .
SI could make the country much richer, but the main question of the future is not growth but how this new pie will be divided between people and the owners of the machines.
Anthropic economists, together with Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, released an interactive model with three scenarios. In the "moderate" one, US GDP in 2030 is only 1.6% above baseline ($34.1 trillion); in the "substantial" one, where half of knowledge work is automated, it is 8.3% higher. In the "extreme" one GDP grows to $44.4 trillion (+32.4%), but labor's share of income falls from ~60% to 45.2%, unemployment rises to the level of historic recessions, and knowledge workers' wages fall by more than 10%. The company assigns no probabilities to the scenarios.
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